Texas Is a Buyer’s Market Right Now: What It Means for Home Shoppers in 2026

Something has quietly shifted in the Texas real estate market, and I think a lot of buyers have not caught on yet. After two years of low inventory, fierce competition, and sellers calling every shot, the tables have turned. Texas in 2026 is increasingly a buyer’s market, and if you have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right moment, this is worth paying attention to.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Let me give you some real data from across the state. In Houston, inventory climbed to 8.2 months of supply in March 2026, according to data from HAR.com. That is a significant jump from 6.8 months just a year earlier. Median prices in parts of the Houston metro slid 4.3% year over year. More supply, lower prices, and more days on market: that is a buyer’s market by definition.

In Dallas, the correction has been sharper. Redfin data puts the median sale price around $375,000 for the Dallas market, down from peaks seen in 2023 and 2024. Sellers who were holding firm on price are starting to negotiate. Concession requests are being accepted. The dynamic has changed.

San Antonio and Fort Worth are telling similar stories. Prices are easing. Homes are sitting on the market longer. Buyers who come in pre-approved and ready to move have real leverage today that simply did not exist a couple of years ago.

Statewide, the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M has noted that active inventory shot up over 20% year over year. That is not a small shift. That is a meaningful structural change in the market.

What Is Driving the Inventory Surge?

A few things are happening at once. First, Texas added enormous amounts of new construction during and after the pandemic. The state accounted for 16.5% of all new single-family permits nationally during that period, far outpacing historical norms. Those homes are now hitting the resale market and competing with existing listings.

Second, elevated mortgage rates have slowed the pace of sales even as supply builds. Buyers who can qualify are in a stronger negotiating position because there are simply fewer of them competing for each home. Less competition means less pressure to waive inspections, skip appraisals, or offer above asking price.

Third, Texas has continued to attract population growth. That underlying demand is real. But the pace of building has kept up with demand in a way that keeps prices from running away the way they did from 2020 through 2022.

What This Means If You Are Thinking About Buying

Here is how I frame it for my clients: the question is not whether to wait for rates to drop. Rates may come down, or they may not. What I can tell you is that the inventory picture right now gives you options that have not been available in years. More homes, more negotiating room, and sellers who are willing to contribute to closing costs to get deals done.

Seller concessions are back. In a hot market, sellers laugh at concession requests. In the current Texas market, asking a seller to contribute toward your closing costs is a normal part of a well-structured offer. I help buyers factor those concessions into the overall deal so that out-of-pocket costs at closing stay manageable.

The other thing I tell buyers: if rates do drop meaningfully, the buyer’s market advantage disappears fast. More buyers come back into the market, competition heats up again, and prices adjust. The window where you have both improved inventory and motivated sellers does not stay open forever.

The Rate Conversation: Honest and Direct

I will not fabricate a rate quote in a blog post. Rates vary by loan type, credit score, down payment, and the day you lock. What I will say is that the rate environment in April 2026 is meaningfully different from the peak we saw in 2023, and multiple forecasters see a gradual improvement path ahead.

The approach I recommend: buy the home, refinance the rate later if it makes sense. Lock in the price and the property today, when there is less competition. If rates improve in 12 to 18 months, a refinance is a straightforward transaction. Trying to time both the market and rates simultaneously is a game most people lose.

First-Time Buyers: This Is Your Moment

If you are buying your first home in Texas, I want you to hear this clearly: the conditions are more favorable for you right now than they have been in several years. More homes to choose from, sellers willing to negotiate, and loan programs designed specifically for first-time buyers.

FHA loans remain the go-to for buyers with smaller down payments or credit scores in the mid-600s. Conventional options through Fannie Mae HomeReady and Freddie Mac Home Possible allow as little as 3% down with income-based eligibility. For veterans, a VA loan with zero down is still one of the most powerful financial tools in existence.

I work with first-time buyers all over Texas: Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Fort Worth, El Paso, Lubbock, and beyond. The process is the same whether you are in a big city or a smaller market. I walk you through every step, explain every document, and make sure you close with confidence.

For Investors: Watch the DSCR Space

The buyer’s market conditions extend to investment properties as well. With more inventory and softening prices in key Texas metros, I am seeing renewed interest from real estate investors looking to add cash-flowing properties. DSCR loans (Debt Service Coverage Ratio loans) are a strong tool here: qualification is based on the property’s rental income, not the investor’s personal income. That makes them appealing for self-employed borrowers or investors with complex tax returns.

If you are thinking about your first rental property, or adding to a portfolio, now is a good time to run the numbers with me.

How to Get Started

Getting pre-approved takes less time than most people think. You will need recent pay stubs, W-2s, tax returns, and bank statements. I pull credit, look at your full financial picture, and give you a clear number: here is what you qualify for, here is what makes sense for your budget, here is what to expect at closing.

No guesswork. No vague answers. Just honest information so you can make a real decision.

If you are anywhere in Texas and ready to have that conversation, reach out here. I am happy to answer questions before you are even close to ready to buy. That is how I prefer to work.

Anthony Ferrando | NMLS# 1919613 | Ferrando Financial LLC NMLS# 2403080 | Licensed in Texas. This is not a commitment to lend. All loans subject to credit approval and program guidelines.