Texas Housing Inventory Is Up: What That Actually Means for Buyers in 2026

Something shifted in the Texas housing market, and if you are planning to buy a home this year, you need to understand it. After years of razor-thin inventory and frantic bidding wars, the market has rebalanced. Sales were down about 8% year-over-year heading into 2026, and inventory has climbed above balanced-market norms in several major Texas metros. Analysts at the Texas Real Estate Research Center expect statewide median prices to hold near current levels or increase only slightly through 2026, with some regions seeing gains and others seeing modest softening.

What does all of this mean in plain English? It means buyers have more options, more negotiating room, and more time to make thoughtful decisions than they have had in years. And if you approach this market the right way, with your financing locked in and your expectations calibrated, you can come out in a very strong position.

What Rising Inventory Actually Means

Inventory is measured in months of supply. A balanced market is typically around 4 to 6 months of supply. Below that, sellers have the power. Above that, buyers start to gain leverage. Several Texas markets have moved into or toward that balanced range for the first time since the pandemic-era buying frenzy.

For buyers, more inventory means a few things:

• More homes to choose from, so you are not forced to bid on the first thing you see
• Longer average days on market, which gives you time to do proper due diligence
• More willingness from sellers to negotiate on price, repairs, or closing costs
• Less likelihood of getting outbid in a multiple-offer situation

According to Redfin data from March 2026, only 12.8% of Texas homes sold above list price, which is a significant drop from the peak years when that figure was well above 50% in many markets. That is a real shift, and buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to calm down have reason to start paying close attention again.

The Rate Picture in 2026

Mortgage rates are still elevated relative to the sub-3% environment of 2020 and 2021. Rates have generally stayed above 6% through early 2026, and most forecasters expect them to remain in that range for the near term, though there is room for movement depending on inflation data and Federal Reserve decisions.

Here is the thing I tell every buyer who asks me about rates: the rate environment you are in right now is the one you need to make a decision in. Waiting for rates to drop to some target number is a strategy, but it carries risk. If inventory tightens again, or if prices in your target market start climbing, you could win on the rate side and lose on the price or competition side.

What I recommend instead is understanding your monthly payment at current rates and asking yourself honestly: can I afford this home at this payment? If the answer is yes, and the home fits your life and your goals, then waiting is a choice to delay a decision, not a free option to buy later at better terms.

Where in Texas I Am Watching Right Now

The Texas market is not monolithic. Different metros are behaving differently, and within each metro there are neighborhoods moving in opposite directions.

Houston: The Houston metro continues to attract population growth driven by energy, healthcare, and technology employment. Inventory has increased, but demand remains steady. Buyers here are finding more room to negotiate than in recent years, particularly in the suburban ring communities.

Dallas-Fort Worth: DFW remains one of the fastest-growing metros in the country. Job growth continues to drive housing demand, but inventory has risen enough to give buyers more breathing room. The competitive pressure that defined 2021 and 2022 has eased considerably in most submarkets.

San Antonio: San Antonio has a more affordable baseline than Austin or Dallas, and it continues to attract both military families and private-sector relocators. The market here has been relatively stable with modest price growth expected through 2026.

Austin: Austin experienced some of the sharpest price run-up during the pandemic era, and it has also seen some of the most significant correction. Prices are down from their peak, and inventory is elevated. For patient buyers, there are genuinely good opportunities in Austin right now at prices that were not available two or three years ago.

How to Position Yourself as a Buyer in This Market

A balanced or buyer-favoring market does not mean you can be sloppy with your financing. Sellers still want confidence that the deal will close. The buyers who win in this environment are the ones who show up prepared.

Here is what I focus on with every buyer I work with:

Get fully underwritten pre-approval, not just a pre-qualification letter. A pre-qual is based on what you tell me. A full underwrite means your income, assets, and credit have been reviewed by an underwriter. That kind of approval letter tells a seller that your financing is real, and it often makes the difference when two buyers are competing on the same home.

Know your numbers before you fall in love with a house. I walk every client through a detailed payment breakdown before we start looking. You should know your principal and interest, property taxes (Texas has no income tax but has higher property tax rates, so this matters), homeowners insurance, and HOA dues if applicable. The full payment picture shapes what you can actually afford, not just the purchase price.

Use the market dynamics to negotiate strategically. Seller concessions are back on the table in many Texas markets. In some cases you can negotiate for the seller to contribute toward your closing costs or to fund a temporary rate buydown. A 2-1 buydown, for example, lowers your rate by 2% in year one and 1% in year two before settling at the note rate. Seller-funded buydowns can meaningfully reduce your initial payment while you settle into the home.

My Take: This Is a Window Worth Paying Attention To

I have been in the mortgage business long enough to watch market cycles. The frenzy of 2021 and 2022 was not normal. What we have now, more inventory, more negotiating room, a statewide median price that is holding rather than sprinting, feels a lot more like the kind of market where buyers can make good long-term decisions without the panic and regret that comes from overbidding out of fear.

That does not mean prices are cheap or that rates are low. It means the conditions are reasonable, and for a buyer who is financially ready, the window right now is worth taking seriously.

If you are thinking about buying a home in Texas this year, whether in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Fort Worth, or anywhere else in the state, I am happy to sit down with you (virtually or in person) and walk through what makes sense for your situation. I work 1-on-1 with every client. You get me, not a call center, from your first question through closing day.

Reach out here and let us talk. There is no pressure and no obligation. Just a straight conversation about your goals and what is possible.

Rates vary based on credit profile, loan amount, and market conditions at time of application. Not a commitment to lend. Market data sourced from Texas Real Estate Research Center, Redfin, and National Mortgage Professional (2026). Ferrando Financial LLC, NMLS# 2403080. Anthony Ferrando, NMLS# 1919613. Licensed in Texas.